An economist told me that his profession was basically speculation. Well stand by this description, probably light and vague, I did a tour of some economic data have been published in recent days.
found, for example, this year, private capital outflows from Argentina around U.S. $ 7,600 million (plus U.S. $ 1,500 million a month) and at the end of 2009, the flight could reach U.S. $ 23,100 million.
Why should such a capital flight? According to the magazine Economic America, the situation is explained in the renewed confidence in Argentina's economy. Of course, it is a truism, distrust is the opposite of investor confidence. Although
and investor confidence has begun to wreak havoc in Argentina, a study by International Business Report 2009 reveals that 89% of employers based in Argentina, and for 80% of Brazilians, the legal uncertainty is a major concerns, which obviously contributed to capital flight in Argentina and is a warning about what could happen to investments in Brazil.
In this regard, Javier Martinez, director of marketing at Grant Thornton, says "legal uncertainty deters foreign and local investment. If you feel that the laws be changed mid-way, it raises concerns and problems within the companies and limits their growth. "
The case of Venezuela is striking: the wave of nationalizations , arrears in payments to international suppliers, a high deficit trade balance, plummeting more than 55% in exports, corruption and capricious exchange management Chávez government, create a chilling investor confidence, and few left, it seems that they are not by choice or initiative, but the bar has put the government to retain them in any way: "direct investment in Venezuela recorded a surplus of $ 826 million, due to the increase in liabilities private sector against foreign investors. "
This, plus scare those who still dare to maintain its capital in the volatile country, causes very strong rejection by the close trading partners.
Referring to the dream of Hugo Chavez to enter Mercosur, former Minister of Industry and Trade of Brazil, José Botafogo Gonçalves, says "political project, commercial and economic Chávez - said by him, not for us - is incompatible.
Botafogo goes further and indicates that " Venezuela is not incompatible with Mercosur, but Chavez is. What I want to do not go hand in hand with the objectives market. A common market is a free market and the Bolivarian policy is the opposite of that. "
This is the situation in three countries aligned with the proposed fuzzy Latin American socialism, led by characters from left to turn are part of the Forum of Sao Paulo. What these data show is that these governments are directly attacking investor confidence and that leads to capital flight in search of safer areas.
In contrast, the faculty of Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and some private equity firms predict that by 2009 will one of the best years to invest in the region . According to Latin American Venture Capital Association (LAVCA by its acronym in English) there are several factors that contribute to the expansion of private equity and venture capital in the region, among others, the strong demand of the growing middle class in key markets Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Peru.
All this may simply be a loose collection of data and interpretations and speculative rigged. However, it is at least remarkable that the political trends that cross the sky in Latin America as well be in complete harmony with the economic situations that living in different countries of the region and best wishes are not just for those who are trying to impose socio-political model that destroys the economy, stability and freedom.
By Jaime Restrepo. Director of Atrabilioso.
found, for example, this year, private capital outflows from Argentina around U.S. $ 7,600 million (plus U.S. $ 1,500 million a month) and at the end of 2009, the flight could reach U.S. $ 23,100 million.
Why should such a capital flight? According to the magazine Economic America, the situation is explained in the renewed confidence in Argentina's economy. Of course, it is a truism, distrust is the opposite of investor confidence. Although
and investor confidence has begun to wreak havoc in Argentina, a study by International Business Report 2009 reveals that 89% of employers based in Argentina, and for 80% of Brazilians, the legal uncertainty is a major concerns, which obviously contributed to capital flight in Argentina and is a warning about what could happen to investments in Brazil.
In this regard, Javier Martinez, director of marketing at Grant Thornton, says "legal uncertainty deters foreign and local investment. If you feel that the laws be changed mid-way, it raises concerns and problems within the companies and limits their growth. "
The case of Venezuela is striking: the wave of nationalizations , arrears in payments to international suppliers, a high deficit trade balance, plummeting more than 55% in exports, corruption and capricious exchange management Chávez government, create a chilling investor confidence, and few left, it seems that they are not by choice or initiative, but the bar has put the government to retain them in any way: "direct investment in Venezuela recorded a surplus of $ 826 million, due to the increase in liabilities private sector against foreign investors. "
This, plus scare those who still dare to maintain its capital in the volatile country, causes very strong rejection by the close trading partners.
Referring to the dream of Hugo Chavez to enter Mercosur, former Minister of Industry and Trade of Brazil, José Botafogo Gonçalves, says "political project, commercial and economic Chávez - said by him, not for us - is incompatible.
Botafogo goes further and indicates that " Venezuela is not incompatible with Mercosur, but Chavez is. What I want to do not go hand in hand with the objectives market. A common market is a free market and the Bolivarian policy is the opposite of that. "
This is the situation in three countries aligned with the proposed fuzzy Latin American socialism, led by characters from left to turn are part of the Forum of Sao Paulo. What these data show is that these governments are directly attacking investor confidence and that leads to capital flight in search of safer areas.
In contrast, the faculty of Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and some private equity firms predict that by 2009 will one of the best years to invest in the region . According to Latin American Venture Capital Association (LAVCA by its acronym in English) there are several factors that contribute to the expansion of private equity and venture capital in the region, among others, the strong demand of the growing middle class in key markets Mexico, Colombia, Chile and Peru.
All this may simply be a loose collection of data and interpretations and speculative rigged. However, it is at least remarkable that the political trends that cross the sky in Latin America as well be in complete harmony with the economic situations that living in different countries of the region and best wishes are not just for those who are trying to impose socio-political model that destroys the economy, stability and freedom.
By Jaime Restrepo. Director of Atrabilioso.
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